economics

4 essays from the research archive.

• Dawn of the Silicon Gods

  Evidence that AI capabilities are accelerating: doubling progress, emergent reasoning, and why bubble skeptics are wrong.

  Dec 29, 2025 · 23 min read

• Scraping 2 Million Substack Articles

  What predicts Substack success: pricing, post frequency, word count, and category, from millions of posts and thousands of publications.

  Apr 4, 2025 · 10 min read

• AI Makes Us Stupid, Smart

  AIs enhance job performance equivalent to a >15 IQ point gain. Least competent see greatest gains.

  Jan 25, 2025 · 9 min read

• Debunking 'Declining Worldwide Innovation'

  Replicating Huebner's method with historical figures reveals no innovation decline, just selection bias in his single source book.

  Jan 7, 2025 · 8 min read