Sociology

We trained a model on 1.5 million criminal records to predict race using mugshots and names achieving 92.76% accuracy. An accurate linear model trained on biased data learns the true signal, with deviations indicating mislabeling rather than model error. 29% of predicted Hispanics are misclassified as White. Correcting this increases Hispanic criminal record rates by 20-31% and decreases White rates by 4-6%.

Common explanations for rising loneliness and incels (dating apps, smartphones, gender dynamics) should apply globally. But if the phenomenon itself doesn’t exist outside the US, these explanations become irrelevant by default—you can’t explain an effect that isn’t there. The US-specific nature of the trend invalidates all theories.

Over the past decade there has been significant discussion on the rise of sexlessness/incels. It’s reached meme proportions, with the infamous GSS plot, loved by grifters for clicks and puddle deep analysis, constantly cited as proof of a great loveless uprising. This post explores three datasets; the NSFG, YRBSS and the GSS to uncover the truth…